Methodology
How We Make Picks.
How We Prove Skill.
Transparency is the product. Every pick is documented before kickoff, tracked against the closing line, and published permanently — wins and losses alike.
View full track record →The Pick Process
Four steps. No exceptions.
Every pick published on StakExpress follows this sequence — no back-dating, no post-hoc selection, no private record-keeping.
Identify a discrepancy
We look for a gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Sources: EPL fixture data, referee assignments, Hype Index score, line movement patterns.
Build the rationale
Before posting, we document the case: why the edge exists, what data supports it, and what the key risk factors are. Rationale is saved to the pick post.
Publish with timestamp
The pick goes live on-site and on X simultaneously. The tweet creates an external, immutable timestamp independent of this site.
Track result and CLV
After the match: result is logged (W/L/Push), closing line is recorded, and CLV is calculated. All data is public on the Track Record page.
Closing Line Value
CLV is the only honest measure of betting skill.
Win rate is noisy — a lucky run can look like skill. Return on investment can be gamed with cherry-picked sample sizes. Closing Line Value (CLV) cuts through both.
The closing line is set by the sharpest money in the world. If the odds you posted are consistently better than where the market closed, you found real edge — not variance.
📋 Formula: CLV % = ((posted odds − closing line) ÷ closing line) × 100. Positive = you beat the closing line. A sustained positive average CLV over 50+ picks is the gold-standard proof of skill.
Example: you post Arsenal at 2.10. The line closes at 1.95. CLV = ((2.10 − 1.95) ÷ 1.95) × 100 = +7.7%. You found value the market eventually agreed with.
All CLV figures on the Track Record page use decimal odds and are calculated at match kickoff, not at half-time or final whistle.
Hype Index
Narrative vs. line. The gap is the edge.
The Hype Index scores the intensity of public narrative around an EPL fixture on a 0–100 scale, then compares it to actual line movement. When the public is loud and the line hasn't moved, the sharp money hasn't agreed — and that divergence matters.
Each week we publish a Hype Index report for the upcoming matchweek, scoring every fixture on:
- Hype Score (0–100) — overall public narrative intensity based on media volume, social mentions, and injury chatter
- Narrative Divergence — whether the main storyline is aligned with, or opposed to, where the line is moving
- Sharp vs. Public — directional read on whether sharp action contradicts public-side betting
🔎 A high Hype Score (70+) combined with "Opposed" narrative divergence is the pattern we watch most closely — it often signals a fade opportunity.
The Hype Index is a data input, not a bet recommendation. It informs pick rationale but never replaces it.
Referee Database
Referees move lines. Most bettors ignore them.
A strict referee in a foul-heavy fixture changes the expected cards, penalties, and total goals. We track every EPL referee across 10 data points and publish the full database publicly.
Data tracked per referee:
- Avg fouls per game — season rolling average
- Avg yellows & reds per game
- Penalty rate — penalties awarded per match (decimal)
- Home win rate — % of their matches won by the home side
- Over rate — % of their matches where total goals exceeded the line
- Card tendency — lenient / average / strict classification
📋 Referee assignments for EPL matches are published on Thursdays. Our n8n automation fetches them and updates the Referee CPT the same day.
Open data & methodology
StakExpress publishes its methodology, a sample Premier League referee dataset, and the planned data-API schema openly under CC BY 4.0 — built to be cited by AI assistants, data journalists and B2B consumers. Explore or cite the open data repository on GitHub ›.
Responsible Gambling
StakExpress is an information and analysis platform. We do not accept bets, hold funds, or operate as a bookmaker. All content is for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Gambling involves financial risk. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results — this applies to us as much as anyone.
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