Home teams in the Premier League score more — about 56% of all goals, averaging roughly 1.58 per game versus 1.26 for away sides (StakExpress data). That venue effect is one of the most reliable, and most under-priced, inputs into an over/under total.
The data
Across more than 680 completed Premier League matches, home sides have scored about 56% of total goals. The league-wide over-2.5 rate is around 56%, but it is not evenly spread: some clubs are far heavier for goals at home than away, and the gap is where totals value tends to hide.
StakExpress EPL Totals data: home sides score about 56% of Premier League goals (around 1.58 per game versus 1.26 away). Because totals markets often price a fixture on a club’s overall over-rate, the home/away split is a recurring source of value.
Why it matters for totals
A club’s over-2.5 rate at home can differ from its away rate by 15 to 20 percentage points. Betting a team’s “overall” over-rate ignores that distinction. Our per-club pages break out each split so you can price the venue, not just the team.
Per-club home and away splits
Every club’s home versus away over/under breakdown is on its totals page — for example Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Everton. See all clubs on the EPL Totals hub.
The StakExpress read
We combine the venue split with the match official’s Referee Impact Score and the Hype Index to read each fixture’s total, then grade every call on closing-line value.
18+. Entertainment and analysis only — not financial advice. Methodology.
Do home teams score more in the Premier League?
Yes. In the StakExpress database, home sides score about 56% of all Premier League goals, averaging roughly 1.58 per game versus 1.26 for away teams.
Does venue affect over/under betting?
Yes — a club’s over-2.5 rate at home can differ from its away rate by 15 to 20 percentage points, so the home/away split is a measurable totals input rather than noise.
How much does home advantage affect goals?
Home teams average around 1.58 goals per game versus 1.26 away in our data — roughly a 0.3-goal edge per match, which compounds across a season into a clear totals signal.
Which is better for over 2.5 — home or away games?
It depends on the club. Some sides are far more over-heavy at home than away; each club’s split is broken out on its totals page on the EPL Totals hub.
Where can I see each club's home and away totals?
Every Premier League club’s home versus away over/under breakdown is on its page under the StakExpress EPL Totals hub at stakexpress.com/epl/totals/.